السبت، أبريل 21، 2018

التركيز على الاقتصاد بعد ان وصل النووي الى اهدافه

قال رئيس كوريا الشمالية خلال الجلسة العامة للجنة المركزية لحزب العمال الحاكم يوم أمس الجمعة إن كوريا الشمالية سوف تعلق التجارب النووية وتجارب إطلاق الصواريخ الباليستية العابرة للقارات ابتداءً من اليوم السبت، كما ستغلق موقع "بونغ كي ري" النووي. 

وأوضح  الرئيس كيم جونغ اون إن القرار مهم في المسار نحو نزع السلاح النووي العالمي، مضيف أن بيونغ يانغ ستنضم إلى الجهود الدولية لإنهاء جميع التجارب النووية. وأضاف أن بلاده لن تستخدم أسلحتها النووية بأي حال من الأحوال طالما لا يوجد تهديد نووي أو استفزاز ضد النظام. كما تعهد بعدم نقل الأسلحة النووية أو التكنولوجيا النووية تحت أي ظرف من الظروف. 


كما أشار البيان إلى أن المهام المتعلقة بسياسة المسارين المتمثلة في السعي إلى تحقيق كل من التنمية النووية والاقتصادية، التي تم تبنيها في عام 2013 ، قد اكتملت جميعها، وأن المبدأ التوجيهي الاستراتيجي الجديد هو تركيز جميع الجهود على بناء اقتصاد الشمال.

وتماشيا مع هذا، اعتمدت الجلسة العامة بيانا منفصلا يُتعهد فيه بتركيز كل الطاقة على بناء اقتصاد اشتراكي.





الجمعة، أبريل 20، 2018

محاكمة الرئيس السابق "لي ميونغ باك"


يترقب العالم انعقاد القمة الكورية التي سنتهي باعلان وقف الهدنة واستبدالها باتفاقية للسلام وفي الوقت ذاته قرر القضاء البدء بمحاكمة الرئيس الجنوبي السابق اوائل الشهر القادم  حيث من المرجح ان يصبح رئيسي الجمهورية من حزب سينوري نزلاء في سجون سيول بعدما ثبت سوء استعمالهما للسلطة والاختلاس وتلقي رشاوى من القطاعين العام والخاص. رافق فترة حكم حزب سينوري الرئاسية الكثير من المآسي التي عانى منها عموم الشعب الكوري من سوء الاحوال الاقتصادية وتراجع سرع صرف العملة الوطنية اضافة الى قوانين شرعنة البطالة المبطنة والغاء سياسة  الدعم للقطاعات المنتجة العائدة للطبقات الشعبية كما صرف النظر عن تخفيض وحصر الوجود العسكري الاميركي اضافة الى الغاء قانون خفض مدة الخدمة العسكرية الالزامية.
حددت محكمة سيول المركزية الساعة الثانية وعشر دقائق من بعد ظهر يوم الثالث من ايار مايو المقبل موعدا للجلسة الاولى لما قبل المحاكمة. يجدر الذكر ان الرئيس السابق "لي" متهم بتلقي   11 مليار وون من الرشاوى من جهاز المخابرات الوطني من خلال مساعديه الرئاسيين ومن بعض الشركات، ومن بينها شركة أوري المالية القابضة (woori bank).

آخر التحضيرات و اولى نتائج القمة الكورية





اولى نتائج القمة الكورية يوم الجمعة القادم اعلنها المتحدث باسم وزارة الخارجية الصينية "هوا تشون ينغ" الذي قال   إن أفضل  طريقة لحل قضية شبه الجزيرة الكورية هو تنفيذ نزع السلاح النووي وإنشاء نظام للسلام في شبه الجزيرة الكورية بشكل متزامن. وأضاف أن الحكومة الصينية تؤيد إنهاء حالة الحرب في شبه الجزيرة الكورية والجهود الدولية المبذولة لإنشاء ظام للسلام فيها. هذا التصريح سيتكرر مضمونه في بيان القمة الكورية يوم الجمعة القادم وهو ليس بالجديد اذ سبق و تناوله الرئيس الصيني  جين بين في خطاب توليه الرئاسة منذ سنوات ليعود الرئيس الكوري الجنوبي مون ليتحدث في المضمون ذاته في خطاب القسم حيث تطرق الى موضوع السياسات الخارجية معلنا انه سيسعى الى توحيد كوريا ووصل ما انقطع مع الشمال مبديا استعداده الى زيارة بيونغ يانغ اذا توافرت الظروف الملائمة.
من جهة اخرى تم افتتاح الخط الساخن بين الرئيسين الكوريين وهو الاول لم يكون موجود سابقا اذ كان الاتصال محصورا سابقا بوكالة المخابرات الوطنية وبشكل غير مباشر. وتشمل الخطوة الجديدة في قنوات الاتصال وصل عدد من القيادات بين الكوريتين. 
جرت امس آخر التحضيرات للقمة المنتظرةوهي عبارة عن تجارب ايدائية لطريقة حصول المصافحة وما يسبقها ويليها وغيرها من المراحل التنفيذية. 

الخميس، أبريل 19، 2018

لقاء قمة كورية تاريخي وعلني


انتهت امس الترتيبات الضرورية للقاء القمة التاريخية بين الكوريتين ، الاجتماع دام 5 ساعات  في مبنى "تونغ إيل غاك" في الجزء الشمالي من قرية الهدنة  الحدودية "بان مون جوم"، لمناقشة المسائل ذات الصلة بالبروتوكول والحراسة والإعلام في القمة المرتقبة ، حيث تم الاتفاق على البث الحي لجدول الأعمال الرئيسية للقمة، بما فيذ لك لحظة المصافحة بين قائدي الكوريتين.


لقاء القمة العلني الاول يوم الجمعة 27 من الشهر الجاري سينتج عنه توقيع  على اتفاق السلام الاولي في شبه الجزيرة الكورية لتطوى صفحة مريرة طويلة من حرب الاخوة. يذكر ان الرئيس مون في خطاب القسم تطرق الى موضوع السياسات الخارجية معلنا انه سيسعى الى توحيد كوريا ووصل ما انقطع مع الشمال مبديا استعداده الى زيارة بيونغ يانغ اذا توافرت الظروف الملائمة. 

السبت، أبريل 07، 2018

لقاء القمة الكورية

بعد الانهيار الكبير لحزب كان حاكم


مع اعتراف العالم بدور ونفوذ الصين برئاسة تشي جين بين 

ومع وصول مناضل من الصفوف الطلابية الى سدة الرئاسة في سيول و هو في الاصل من كوريا الشمالية



لم يهتم رئيس كوريا الشمالية يوما بالحلول السياسية الدبلوماسية يوما كما فعل في الشهر الثالث من العام الجاري



الثلاثاء، أبريل 03، 2018

الصين والولايات المتحدة الاميركية ، بوادر حرب باردة اقتصادية

قال الرئيس ترامب انه يرى امكانية ايجاد حل مع صديقة الرئيس شي جين بين بحسب وصفه واضاف ان تلك الصداقة ستظل متينة مهما حصل بخصوص المسائل التجارية الخلافية. 

غرد الرئيس الاميركي على تويتر ان الصين ستذلل مسألة الحواجز التجارية


هل تكون كوريا الجنوبية اول الخاسرين و من الجولة الاولى ام تفترق عن الولايات المتحدة الاميركية
 لركوب الموجة الصينية الصاعدة في المنطقة و العالم؟؟؟


اولى نتائج الاحتكاك الصيني الميركي اقتصاديا بدأت بالظهور في كوريا الجنوبية. 
تتزايد المخاوف في كوريا الجنوبية من تحركات الإدارة الأميركية الحمائية - الانغلاقية  التي أوقدت الاحتكاك التجاري مع الصين، السيناريو الذي ممكن ان يؤدي إلى حرب تجارية بين اكبر القوى الاقتصادية في  العالم.
قال الرئيس الأميركي دونالد ترامب اليوم الخميس أنه طلب من الممثل التجاري الأمريكي للنظر في طريقة وضع رسوم جمركية إضافية على المنتجات الصينية بما تبلغ قيمته 100 بیلیون دولار، بعد الإعلان عن خطة لفرض ضرائب بقيمة  25 في المائة على الواردات الصينية والتي تبلغ قيمتها 50 مليار دولار.
ردا على ذلك، تعهدت الصين يوم الجمعة الماضي  بمحاربة الحمائية التي تتبعها الولايات المتحدة " مهما كان الثمن".   قال قاو فنغ المتحدث باسم وزارة التجارة الصينية اننا لا نريد الحرب التجارية, لكن نحن لا نخاف منها.
اصدرت الرابطة الكورية الجنوبية للتجارة الدولية تقرير تقديري متخوفة من أن صادرات كوريا الجنوبية ستعاني من خسائر ستصل قيمتها الى  36.7 بیلیون دولار إذا ما حصل  الاحتكاك التجاري الصيني-الأمريكي وتطور إلى حرب تجارية كاملة. طارحة سيناريو أسوأ الحالات، وهو احتمال ضئيل بتوريط الاتحاد الأوروبي في الخلافات التجارية الصينية-الأمريكية لجهة رفع رسوم الاستيراد عشر نقاط مئوية. سيؤدي ذلك في نهاية المطاف الى انخفاض حركة التصدير من كوريا الجنوبية، والتي تمثل نصف الاقتصاد ، بنسبة 6.4 في المائة، أو 36.7 بیلیون دولار أمريكي. وقال التقرير أن الخلافات التجارية بين الصين والولايات المتحدة، التين تشكلان حوالي 40 في المائة من حجم التجارة العالمية يعني حتمية انخفاض حركة التجارة العالمية  مما يؤدي إلى انخفاض صادرات كوريا الجنوبية، التي تشكل صادراتها إلى أكبر شريكين تجاريين أكثر من ثلث المجموع. ستطال الخسائر بالدرجة الاولى قطاع صادرات السلع التحويلية لكوريا الجنوبية، مثل قطع الغيار والمواد المستخدمة كمواد اولية في صناعات اخرى، وهي تمثل أكثر من ثلثي صادرات كوريا الجنوبية للصين.
 أعرب الرئيس الكوري الجنوبي مون جاي في تصريح له الأسبوع الماضي عن قلقه الكبير إزاء الخلافات التجارية، وقال أن اتجاه الحمائية التجارية، والصراع التجاري بين الصين والولايات المتحدة  كلها عوامل يمكن أن تؤثر سلبا على اقتصاد بلاده، التي تحتل المرتبة السادسة في حركة التصدير العالمية  السادسة واكثر ما تعتمد عليه هي حركة ازدهار التجارة العالمية.
ورد في تقرير من معهد بحوث هيونداي، انه إذا طبقت الولايات المتحدة تعرفه جمركية بنسبة 25 في المئة على منتجات مستوردة من الصين منتجات بقيمة 50 بیلیون دولار كما هددت، فستنخفض الصادرات السنوية من كوريا الجنوبية الى الصين ما قيمته 28.26 بیلیون دولار، يستند التقدير إلى سيناريو مفاده أن ارتفاع التعريفات الجمركية الأمريكية سيسبب انخفاض بنسبة 10 في المائة من  صادرات الصين إلى الولايات المتحدة. ما يعادل انخفاض  تقدر قيمته بما يعادل ما يقرب من 20 في المائة من إجمالي صادرات كوريا الجنوبية البالغ 142 بیلیون دولار في عام 2017.



مقتطفات منقولة عن الاعلام الصيني الرسمي:
 The Trump administration will take steps to prevent China from investing in the United States high-tech industries
While preparing to impose punitive tariffs on a number of Chinese products, the Trump administration is planning to prevent China from acquiring state-of-the-art technology by restricting China’s investment in high-tech innovation industries in the United States. Limits range from microchips to sensitive technologies such as 5G. These innovative industries are expected to drive the global economy for decades.

The United States has already stopped some Chinese investments. The scope of future bans on Chinese companies’ investments may increase. According to data tracked by the research firm Rhodium Group, China invested approximately US$45 billion in the United States in 2016, compared with US$15 billion in the previous year.
The White House called China "economic enemy." Trump has already exercised the power given to him by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States. In mid-March, due to concerns that mergers and acquisitions may lead Chinese chip companies to further dominate, he rejected Broadcom’s acquisition of US chip giant Qualcomm. In January, Trump rejected the Chinese company Ant Financial’s purchase of U.S. Express. Last September, Trump opposed a Chinese-backed investor to buy a chip company, Lattice Semiconductor. Rfi
2. Truth in Sino-U.S. trade war smoke prevents the hollowing out of car enterprise technology;
The truth in Sino-U.S. trade war smoke prevents the hollowing out of technology
■ Our reporter Sun Bin Yu Jianping reports from Beijing
Within a week, Trump’s trade war will target a wider range of Chinese goods. In the short term, the impact of Trump’s seemingly tough new tariff on the traditional manufacturing of automobiles may not be as deep as the industry desired. The US’s largest auto market is in China, and the current Chinese auto manufacturing industry’s ability to sell back Even if the U.S. maintains a 2% tariff, the returning vehicles from China's ports of departure will not be able to reach an order of magnitude compared with those of Buick and Ford, who are in the forefront of China.
From the standpoint of the several Huaxia Times automakers that were contacted by the China-US Huamei Automobile Manufacturing Corporation, it can be seen that the automakers that have a large number of export trade in China have stepped up the pace of localization. While abandoning the traditional trade and proceeding from the new energy manufacturing sector that Trump cares about, many new energy generators are evolving in this round, and they need to be vigilant enough to prevent the hollowing out of the industry after technological blockade.
Tesla or more dangerous than the traditional US Department
In the current Sino-U.S. automobile trade pattern, the Chinese output is mainly auto parts, a small amount of U.S.-backed cars and electric buses, while the U.S. is the whole vehicle, among which are many non-traditional automakers such as Tesla that rely entirely on the import channels. Business, but also includes GM, Ford, FCA Group's JEEP brand.
After Trump announced the above tariff decision, the prices of GM, Ford and FCA, the three largest car makers in the United States, dropped by 3.9%, 3.0% and 2.8%, respectively.
According to previous reports from OEMs, the GM-owned Biekeangkewei and Cadillac CT6 models were all sold back to the US market in the form of imported vehicles. GM China stated that “the information company needs to know more details” and promised to release an official statement at the right time.
Ford China said in an interview, "We hope that the two governments will work together to solve the problems between the two major economies." The US automaker announced in June 2017 that the fourth-generation Fox (fourth-generation model) sold in the United States since 2019 will be imported from China.
Currently, Chrysler (China) Automobile Sales Co., Ltd., which basically relies on import trade in its profit structure and channels, is fully promoting the local production of the new JEEP large commander at its Changsha plant. Currently in the terminal market, this automotive sales company, which is known for its sales, is using a flexible cost-effective tactics to accelerate PK with Jaguar Land Rover, Volvo and other car companies that are also trying to gain greater market share in this market.
But Alan Musk, the CEO of Tesla Motors, which really started to impose tariffs, had to deal with the fact that Shanghai’s Lingang (24.940, 0.01, 0.04%) bases were not allowed to land. Perhaps it should be the Chinese government’s trade countermeasures. Backdated from December 15, 2011 to December 14, 2013, the Ministry of Commerce issued an announcement announcing that according to the provisions of China's anti-dumping and countervailing regulations, the export volume of the US originating in the United States is 2.5 liters or more. Anti-dumping duties and countervailing duties are levied on cars and off-road vehicles. The implementation period is two years. In the meantime, some US imported cars had to increase their prices and their competitiveness in the Chinese market was severely damaged.
Taking into account Tesla's electric vehicle background, perhaps the Chinese government will not choose the new energy sector as a trade cut for the needs of industry protection. However, Tesla has not tried the channel-building mode for many years, mainly relying on electricity. The sales strategy of the sales may be the same as that of the salesman, and it is temporarily impossible to find a better channel for landing in the Chinese market.
German Reactions
The market opportunity is often fleeting, and it is you who come and go and return.
When Cadillac just turned over and seized the fourth place in the Chinese luxury car market in addition to the BBA in the past year, it first needed to face another zero-sum game in the SAIC system. On March 23 before the U.S. government made a statement, Audi officially announced its cooperation with SAIC and there were market rumors that the two parties would establish a sales company in Hangzhou that covers three systems: FAW Audi, SAIC Audi, and Audi. Audi's rumors began from the end of 2016 until March.
With the addition of Audi, SAIC will bid farewell to the era of only one Cadillac luxury car brand, and officially has a first-tier luxury brand. A supplier from the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions of the SAIC supply chain stated: “In the past, it was only for the general and mass systems. Audi's participation will greatly enhance SAIC's own supply chain level. At the same time, direct beneficiaries include SAIC-Volkswagen. Party also includes SAIC passenger cars."
In other words, in addition to the US Department's options, SAIC just had an extra German channel in March. China-EU cooperation may gain more negotiation space because of the impact of tariff events. The reporter took special note of one detail. Last week, Volkswagen (China) cooperated with North and South China Volkswagen to release several SUVs in China. There were even two new products specifically designed for the Chinese market, and the new Volkswagen models directly faced with competing products. The market will be the existing space for Buick and Chevrolet.
Similarly, from the Toyota side, during the two sessions, Toyoda President Toyoda took off in Beijing, and Toyoda's father, Shoujiro Shoujiro, also rushed to Beijing. For the purpose of Toyota’s highest level, the official government maintained this. Silenced. According to Bloomberg's disclosure, Toyota began suspending autopilot test drive in California and Michigan in March and announced that the L4 drive test was suspended.
The road tests in the United States are only part of Toyota's autopilot program, and for the US, Google, General Motors, and Ford, it will be all of them. The suspension of the L4 was not included in the Toyota’s autopilot strategy, but it was a top priority for Google that rushed to mass produce the L4 in late 2018 and the mass-produced L4 in 2019.
It can be said that Toyota used its "little sacrifices" in exchange for the "great sacrifice" of rivals like Google and GM, and went ahead at their own pace, but when they walked, they either forced their opponents to stop at their own pace or allowed you to raise them repeatedly.
Preventing technological hollowing
The purpose of Toyoda's visit to China cannot be speculated until Toyota's official explanation is obtained. However, a clear signal issued by Toyota is worthy of alerting all new Chinese auto makers and the capital circle for betting on new energy.
In addition to the Chinese market, the major sales destination for Japanese OEMs is the United States. Therefore, the focus of its vehicle layout and technology foresight is also focused on the high speed of the US market. If we only observe the wrestle between China and the United States from the perspective of trade, in addition to the buying and selling relationship, the flow of funds will not be able to gain more open space; or if Toyota Akio only cares about a U.S. origin model, can it export to China, or a Chinese-made hybrid engine, can be sold back overseas, and it is easy to narrow the thinking of global car owners.
The Toyota Group’s car companies really care about the comprehensive analysis of how the Chinese and U.S. governments are in a brand new situation. How both parties deal with the energy structure, market guidance, and competition in new technologies and core intellectual property fields. Whether it will lead to inaccurate R&D routes and market judgments among multinational car companies.
A fairly obvious example is that as many as thousands of new energy vehicle supporting enterprises gathered in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, only waiting for the approval of the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the number of new energy vehicle projects approved reached 100, and it seems that there is a blue ocean market space. Only a handful of complete vehicles and supporting enterprises have mastered battery, motor, electronic control, and automatic driving development core technologies.
On the other hand, the U.S. side has seen elephant giants such as Google’s auto-drivers in the field of autopilot, Ford and GM turning their elephants from their perspectives, or technology giants such as Qualcomm and Invista that are able to control the future of auto networks. In reality, this is the key factor for the current global car companies in the determination of the limelight.
An interview with reporters from a Fujianese Taiwanese businessman who declined to be named in the Foxconn supply chain said: “The experience of Taiwanese companies farming in the Soviet Union and the Guangdong market for many years tells us that as long as we rely on scale to solve the problem, the mainland market can rely on The problem is that when you are accustomed to the traditional model and the technology becomes hollow, the business and industry people want to develop into a brand business. It is difficult to climb to the sky. "I believe this sentence is not just about many traditional car companies. Hearing, for many of the new forces determined to break down industry barriers and hope to use capital to shuffle the manufacturing circle and upgrade the intellectual circle, it is equally useful - to explore the ten billion trade war and learn that Toyota does not follow suit; otherwise, sooner or later It became the meat dish of others. China Times
3. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs talks about the trade war: The United States does not need to make a return to the South Wall;
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responds that "China should not use soybeans as a retaliatory measure for restrictions from the United States"
Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, March 30 (Reporter warmly): For the US ambassador to China, Blandstad said in an interview with the media recently that “China should not impose restrictions on the import of soybeans from the United States as a retaliatory measure”. Japan responded at a regular press conference.
"I know that Ambassador Brandstad is from an important agricultural state in the United States. He cares about the interests of U.S. agricultural industryers. It is entirely understandable. In fact, recently we have also seen the U.S. domestic fear of U.S. government unilateralism. It is not just the agricultural products industry that has deteriorated in the U.S. trade relations,” said Lu Wei.
He said that as to whether China should take soybean as a counter-measure field, it must be clear that the difference between trade and trade war is that trade is everyone's discussion, and once the trade war is started, the warring party will only rely on its own interests. And the need to decide the time, method, and field of countermeasures.
"We have said many times that China does not want to fight a trade war. At the same time, we have repeatedly stated that if we are forced into a trade war, China is emboldened and confident in safeguarding its own interests," said Lu Wei.
He said that China hopes that the US policy makers will also listen carefully to the widespread voice of US consumers and relevant industry circles and carefully weigh the interests of the U.S. side in unilateralism. There is no need to hit the South Wall and turn back.
4. Sino-U.S. Trade War: Conflicts in the United States
Reporter Li Yanjie reports from Beijing
According to the timetable given by US President Trump on the signing of the president’s memorandum on March 23, the U.S. Trade Representative will present a list of products for the implementation of punitive duties on April 6.
However, the US side is very much looking forward to solving problems at the negotiation table. Earlier, U.S. Finance Minister Mukuchin said that he is negotiating with the Chinese government. It is only in the eyes of international trade experts that the Trump administration’s appeals are unlikely to be effective in reducing the trade deficit.
However, potential losers such as American farmers cannot sit still. In the past short span of a week, a number of U.S. media have reported that if a trade war is opened, US soybean farmers, Boeing airplanes, etc. will all be damaged, and consumers in the United States will be hurt.
It is reported that US agricultural companies, including the Soybean Association, are communicating with U.S. trade representatives on punitive tariff issues.
Contradictory American Appeal
A few days ago, the "Wall Street Journal" reported that Munuchin said that he was negotiating with China. Munuchin said that the United States hopes that the Chinese government will relax market access for foreign companies, abolish joint venture restrictions, cancel technology transfer, increase financial market access, reduce auto import taxes, increase purchases of US semiconductors, and so on.
According to Tu Xinquan, dean of the WTO Research Institute of the University of International Business and Economics, the U.S. demands are not very significant for Trump's consistent claim to reduce the trade deficit between the U.S. and China.
These requirements are almost exactly the same as the “China Business Environment Survey 2018” published by the American Chamber of Commerce in China at the beginning of the year.
Cai Ruide, chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, told the “China Business” reporter that Trump’s measures to increase tariffs and restrict Chinese investment in the United States are extremely worrying for the members of the Chamber of Commerce. They are simply burning eyebrows because they fear that China will take revenge. Obviously this It will cause harm to the United States, China, and even the global economy. "The United States has taken such measures at the risk of economic damage. This shows that the United States believes that the issues of China's forced technology transfer, cyber theft, and discriminatory industrial policies are very serious."
“The investigation report of the American Chamber of Commerce in China shows that US companies in China most hope that the U.S. government can win a fair business environment and reciprocal market access for them. We believe that China and the United States maintain close communication and focus on mutual benefits. , will be the best way to create a fair business environment." Tsai Reid said.
Tu Xinquan believes that if China and the United States negotiate successfully, China may make some concessions in terms of market opening, mainly addressing the issue of U.S. companies investing in China.
However, asking China to open up investment and reduce the trade deficit is to some extent counterproductive. Competitive American companies expanding investment and setting up factories in China may also increase the trade deficit between the United States and China. “Only some people are concerned about the industry they are in. No one really cares about the total amount of macroeconomics and whether it has reduced the trade deficit. Even if Trump is not really concerned about the trade deficit,” Tu Xinquan said, “They are self-contradictory. Different people want different things and what to expect. The US steel industry wants to protect and close the US market, and the high-tech and financial industries want Chinese market access."
"The trade deficit is a false proposition. The real substantive issue is import competition and investment access." Tu Xinquan stressed.
Zhou Shizheng, a senior researcher at the Center for Sino-American Relations at Tsinghua University, said that China has been working hard to reduce its trade surplus with the United States. It has been purchasing oil and gas in large quantities since last year.
However, according to Tu Xinquan, the competitiveness of other U.S. products is not high. U.S. car companies have already set up factories in China, and the impact of tariff reductions is not significant. In addition, in terms of consumer goods and luxury goods, Chinese tourists in Europe purchase far more than the United States. However, the United States has been reluctant to loosen its export control because China wants the high-tech technologies exported by the United States.
Trump supporters will be injured
According to the South China Morning Post, on March 30, US local time, U.S. Trade Representative Leterzeze invited U.S. agricultural enterprise groups, including the American Soybean Association and the U.S. Pork Producers Council, to discuss the impact of the Sino-US trade war.
According to the statistics from the Agricultural Research and Development Center of Iowa State University, from 2000 to 2015, the export of agricultural products from the United States (7.250, 0.04, 0.55%) to China increased threefold, from US$51 billion to US$150 billion, each year in the United States. A quarter of soybean production and 60% of exports are destined for China.
Trump’s decision to impose a punitive tariff on China has just been introduced, and the US soybean growers could not sit still. According to foreign media reports, the Soybean delegation from Iowa has expressed concern to the US ambassador to China, Blandstad, and officials of the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture. Now, American agricultural companies, especially soybean farmers, are worried that China will no longer import US agricultural products.
Tu Xinquan said that U.S. agriculture will have a certain influence on the measures taken in the 301 investigation, because agricultural voters have always been a strong supporter of the Republican Party, but how much influence it can produce depends on the strength of the agricultural representative's lobbying. "Agricultural output accounts for only about 1% of U.S. GDP. U.S. agricultural population is only 0.4%. Votes are few. They are meaningful to members of some electoral districts, but they don't make much sense for Trump. They can only rely on members of the Diet to impose on Trump. pressure."
On the other hand, U.S. retailers such as Wal-Mart said that if the "Made in China" product is taxed, it is bound to cause prices to rise. This means that low-income families will pay more for this, and these low-income families voted for Trump in the election.
The US Tax Foundation pointed out that Trump’s punitive tariffs on Chinese products will affect the benefits of the tax reduction act, which is reduced by about 20%.
Zhou Shizhen thinks that the US Tax Foundation’s estimate is very likely. “I once said that China’s exports of cheap and affordable American goods will help reduce inflation in the United States and improve the lives of the majority of low- and middle-income people. The United States’ former Secretary of State Colin Powell also agrees with me. Trump imposes tariffs, actually Instead of increasing the tariffs of Chinese exporting companies, they are added to American importers, passed on to wholesalers and retailers, and finally passed on to consumers."
According to Zhou Shizhen, the Chinese people and society are much more tolerant of trade wars than the United States. "From 1950 to 1972, the United States imposed a blockade and embargo on China. China has no embarrassment. The days of the Chinese people in the past were very simple and strong, and the American shoe, textiles, and clothing increased by 20% to 30%. The American people (71.210, 1.68, 2.42%) will take to the streets and the president."
"Trump intends to hold elections in the mid-term. If he can't guarantee Republicans a majority of seats in the two houses, Trump will become a lame duck in the years following his term of office, because all expenses must pass through the National Assembly or the government will close." The mid-term elections will also threaten re-election. Trump is now eager to re-election and even slogans have been figured out." Zhou Shijun said that everything Trump has done is to tell the American people, "Whatever I do to defend your interests Dare to do it."
“Unfortunately, this Earth did not leave without leaving the United States. Trump announced his withdrawal from the TPP on the third day after taking office. Japan is very hopeful that Trump can change his mind. Trump asked to amend the agreement before he considered joining. On March 7th this year, the original 11 members of the TPP, including Japan, signed in Argentina and will take effect in 2019.
The impact on China remains to be assessed
Previously, the U.S. trade representative’s news spread that the U.S. punitive tariffs were mainly aimed at the “China Made 2025” top ten industries. Although the list of specific taxable products has not yet been announced, several agencies have already given their own analysis and forecasts.
ICBC International believes that the U.S. measures may have a negative impact on the Chinese economy by 0.1% to 0.3%. More foreign institutions have suggested that the impact on China's GDP may reach 1.3% to 3.2%. However, the analysis results of a number of Chinese brokerage firms are very optimistic. They believe that the impact of media forecasts on a number of industries that may be taxed will not be significant.
In response, Tu Xinquan stated that China’s high-tech products do not have a lot of exports to the United States and therefore have little impact; the specific impact still needs to be assessed after the list is issued, and the list may not be implemented in the end.
The United States has a clear intention to push China back to the negotiating table. On the day of Trump’s signing of the president’s memorandum, US Commerce Secretary Ross clearly expressed this point: “Before you would come to me to shoot a few shots, and eventually you will come back to the negotiation table to reach an agreement.”
Subsequently, the "Wall Street Journal" reported that the U.S. finance minister said he is in secret talks with China. On March 28th, local time, Wright Zezer said in an interview with media reporters that the number of days for the United States to impose tariffs on China will be extended from 30 days to 60 days, and tariffs will not be imposed until June this year.
However, Ross quickly said in an interview with media reporters that Trump may soon announce punitive tariffs against China.
Zhou Shijun said: "Trump wants to use the stick to force China to sign the alliance under the city. However, the window period for soliciting opinions has been extended from 30 days to 60 days. It seems that he is guilty. The attitude of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs is very clear: first revoke the 301 investigation, and then Sit down for equal negotiations."
“There has been a noticeable change in the comparison between China and the United States. In 2001, US GDP accounted for 33% of the world's total, and in 2016 it dropped to 24.66% of the world; in 2001, China's GDP accounted for 3.8% of the world, and in 2016 it rose to 15% of the world. In 2001, China’s GDP accounted for 12.8% of the United States, and in 2017 it accounted for 62.2%.” Zhou Shizhen said that China is emboldened and we are not afraid of the trade war.
Zhou Shijun believes that China cannot compromise this time and compromise will lead to endless troubles. "On the Taiwan issue, Trump is the most arrogant American president since Nixon. Trump has used Taiwan as a card to force China to make concessions on economic and trade affairs. If this is his wish, he will be forced to use it when he is not happy. China and the United States are now looking to see who can't calm down. Trump's blackmail tactics can only frighten people who are debilitated."
Zhou Shijun believes that Trump is a typical businessman and will be more pragmatic than anyone else when he encounters real opponents. China Business News



السبت، مارس 31، 2018

تعرف الى الصين وكوريا الجديدة بعيون عربية

حان الوقت للانطلاق في رحلة الى الصين وجديد كوريا  للتعرف اليها بعيون عربية